Exits other than Brexit discussion.

[Abdul Alhazred]

What are possible ones?

Not just Frexit and Grexit, any that you think are plausible, possible, or even desirable?

And let's not forget USexit (from NATO or the UN).

USexit from NATO was mentioned by Trump before the election, but dropped afterward. Mixed feeling from me on this one, because I've been saying NATO is obsolete since the end of the Cold War, though not from a right wing nationalist perspective.

I don't think it will happen any time soon.

[Tony.Williams]

U Sexit if you want to... :?

I have read a suggestion that Germany should leave the Euro, if not the EU. Leave the others to sort themselves out....

More likely, there has been talk recently in the EU about a two-speed Europe (IIRC the British suggested something similar a while back). This would have a fully integrated Eurozone (made up of a few Northern European members with strong economies) and a loose outer rabble (the rest).

[chaggle]

Scoxit - Scotland from the UK - is a distinct possibility.

[Tony.Williams]

Scoxit - Scotland from the UK - is a distinct possibility.

The possibility that Northern Ireland might at some point vote to leave the UK and join with the Republic of Ireland looks a little closer after last week's general election result. The majority of the NI population does not want to leave the EU, and nobody wants a return to border controls. The British government has a also said - for a long time - that it wouldn't stand in the way of such a change if the majority in NI wanted it. Add to that the long-term demographic shifts (Catholics breed more) and it's probably only a matter of time - unless the EU implodes first

I doubt that the great majority of the UK population would be in the slightest bothered to lose NI. In fact, given that it has been an immensely expensive source of constant aggravation (and in the past, terrorist acts in England as well as NI), I suspect that most would wave it goodbye with some enthusiasm.

[chaggle]

Yes - Nixit is as likely as Scoxit although it might take a bit longer. The catholics have a bit more fast-breeding to do yet.

All this makes one wonder if the leave voters thought it through doesn't it?

[Tony.Williams]

All this makes one wonder if the leave voters thought it through doesn't it?

An interesting comment during Keunssberg's review of Brexit last week:

The Brexiteers are arguing that the EU will focus on economic issues in the negotiations and thereby give the UK a favourable deal, rather than follow the political/emotional path of being nasty. Yet what was the Brexit vote itself if not an overriding of strong economic arguments by political/emotional ones?

[Croydon13013]

Add to that the long-term demographic shifts (Catholics breed more)

The catholics have a bit more fast-breeding to do yet.

As far as I am aware this is actually bollocks.

Theoretically the Catholic church stance on contraception should mean that Catholic families have more children than Proddy families. Since 1922 people have been forcasting that the left-footers would out-breed the loyalists.

The reality has been only a very very slight difference until recently. The sudden shift now is due to immigration, not "breeding". It is Catholics from Poland and the Republic coming in. While, at the same time, increasing numbers of NI citizens from Protestant backgrounds have stopped identifying as Protestant.

Poverty, quality of education and healthcare has a far greater influence on numbers of children than religion.

Lazy stereotyping on a skeptic forum. Tut tut.

[Croydon13013]

I doubt that the great majority of the UK population would be in the slightest bothered to lose NI. In fact, given that it has been an immensely expensive source of constant aggravation (and in the past, terrorist acts in England as well as NI), I suspect that most would wave it goodbye with some enthusiasm.

I think that Conservatives and many UKIPpers would be shocked and disappointed to lose NI.

I also think it is far more likely to happen than you and chaggle realise. Minority religions and the non-religious hold the balance of power. Even amongst the Protestants there is some strong support for retaining an open border with Ireland and (less so) for remaining in the EU. A scottish-style independence vote would be carried in NI as long as it was guaranteed that they would remain in the EU.

[chaggle]

Add to that the long-term demographic shifts (Catholics breed more)

The catholics have a bit more fast-breeding to do yet.

As far as I am aware this is actually bollocks.

Theoretically the Catholic church stance on contraception should mean that Catholic families have more children than Proddy families. Since 1922 people have been forcasting that the left-footers would out-breed the loyalists.

The reality has been only a very very slight difference until recently. The sudden shift now is due to immigration, not "breeding". It is Catholics from Poland and the Republic coming in. While, at the same time, increasing numbers of NI citizens from Protestant backgrounds have stopped identifying as Protestant.

Poverty, quality of education and healthcare has a far greater influence on numbers of children than religion.

Lazy stereotyping on a skeptic forum. Tut tut.

Ha! Yes, I know that really. Spain (overwhelmingly catholic) has a very low birth rate. Many catlicks ignore that inconvenient bit of the rules.

[Tony.Williams]

Theoretically the Catholic church stance on contraception should mean that Catholic families have more children than Proddy families. Since 1922 people have been forcasting that the left-footers would out-breed the loyalists.

The reality has been only a very very slight difference until recently. The sudden shift now is due to immigration, not "breeding". It is Catholics from Poland and the Republic coming in. While, at the same time, increasing numbers of NI citizens from Protestant backgrounds have stopped identifying as Protestant.

Poverty, quality of education and healthcare has a far greater influence on numbers of children than religion.

Lazy stereotyping on a skeptic forum. Tut tut.

Sounds as if the actual situation is rather complex: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20673534

I actually think that NIxit is more likely than Scotxit. NI is far less important to the UK than Scotland; it is not only very small in population, but its economy is only about a quarter of Scotland's. Most important, NI is physically separate from GB, so there would be no land border problem.

[Abdul Alhazred]

The Northern Ireland exit.

Is the idea that they would leave the UK (to stay in the EU) and not join Ireland?

[chaggle]

The Northern Ireland exit.

Is the idea that they would leave the UK (to stay in the EU) and not join Ireland?

Almost certainly they would join Ireland rather than go independent but who knows?

Much of this is unknown territory. No-one really knows if Scotland would be allowed to stay in the EU if they left the UK or if they would have to re-join and if they did how easy/difficult that might be.

If Northern Ireland were to become part of the Republic there is a good chance that they would become part of the EU automatically, the precedent being Germany.

[Tony.Williams]

The Northern Ireland exit.

Is the idea that they would leave the UK (to stay in the EU) and not join Ireland?

Almost certainly they would join Ireland rather than go independent but who knows?

I don't think that anyone has ever suggested that, and I doubt that anyone would want it.

Much of this is unknown territory. No-one really knows if Scotland would be allowed to stay in the EU if they left the UK or if they would have to re-join and if they did how easy/difficult that might be.

There would be strong opposition from Spain, worried that it might provide an attractive option to Catalonia, and possibly other countries with regional independence movements.

An independent Scotland would probably have to apply to join the EU, and they would presumably have to sign up to the whole package - including the Euro.

Given that the practical basis for the Scottish independence proposal was the vast revenues rolling in from North Sea oil - now reduced to the point where the industry is asking for government support - I can't see the majority of the population buying into it. But as you say, who knows?

If Northern Ireland were to become part of the Republic there is a good chance that they would become part of the EU automatically, the precedent being Germany.

Sounds reasonable.

[Tony.Williams]

It seems that the Scottish question is becoming interesting. Leaving aside the tactics and timing of another referendum, there is a lot of uncertainty over the outcome, because of the way it's been linked to Brexit. How will those Scots vote who want to remain both in the UK and the EU? Or who want independence but also want to leave the EU?

At the moment the outcome is entirely unpredictable, but no doubt developments over the next couple of years will clarify matters...

[Abdul Alhazred]

This just in:

The Netherlands not exiting this time around.