Where is western politics headed?

[Tony.Williams]

The triple shock of Corbyn, Brexit, and Trump (plus very nearly Bernie Sanders) has emphasised that the voters of the western world are restless and dissatisfied with the status quo. But are there any common threads which indicate a shift in any particular political direction, or is the situation just chaotic?

To focus on the UK first: we have UKIP making significant advances in the popular vote (albeit unrewarded by any more parliamentary seats due to our FPTP voting system). They are now thought to pose a significant threat to the Labour party in the old industrial areas which form the UK's own "rustbelt", despite the fact that such areas have traditionally voted for anything with a Labour sticker attached. I have read arguments that this is because the political left has moved away from the concerns of the working class, which are primarily to have secure jobs which pay well enough to afford a reasonable standard of living without being shafted by a management which is concerned only with profits (presumably the main reason that nationalisation is so popular). The traditional working class have always been small-c conservative in many of their social attitudes, so they are unimpressed by the current left-wing emphasis on the whole field of "gender politics".

The interesting question for UK politics is: will Corbyn really be able to bring back these voters? In some respects he represents old-Labour interests such as state ownership, but he is also part of the "London lefty" scene which, it is argued, just turns off the northern working class. If Farage is replaced by Nuttall, and UKIP concentrates on appealing to the concerns of the traditional working class, it will be interesting to see how that pans out.

[chaggle]

Interesting points to ponder which I will do further.

It is apparent that the old and easily understandable 'left' and 'right' positions are becoming less significant and less well defined.

[Matt]

Don't ask me. I'm an apparently an out of touch, liberal, metropolitan elite. I'm quite pleased with that as I thought I was merely a privileged, progressive, suburbanite.

[Abdul Alhazred]

Don't ask me. I'm an apparently an out of touch, liberal, metropolitan elite. I'm quite pleased with that as I thought I was merely a privileged, progressive, suburbanite.

But of which faction of the ruling class are you a lackey?

[bindeweede]

When actual news appears to be very similar to, or even spoofier than spoof news, I am left both confused and depressed. So can anyone ( meaning I) be blamed for looking for comfort? Whatever, I'll bump this, as the season nears. :)

http://skepsforum.prophpbb.com/topic314.html

[Tony.Williams]

Still focused on the UK - some interesting analyses reported in the papers today, following the result of the Richmond Park by-election.

It appears that people are increasingly defining themselves politically as pro or anti-Brexit, rather than following traditional party loyalties. This may help the Lib Dem vote in Remain areas, and UKIP in working-class Brexit constituencies. The Tories are probably OK in their Brexit constituencies for as long as they stick to their guns over the EU, but Labour might well be caught in the middle; not seen as strongly pro-EU or pro-Brexit, thereby vulnerable to attack from both sides.

Of course, given our FPTP voting system extra votes for minor parties doesn't necessarily translate into extra seats in a general election, but if Labour bleeds votes as a result of all this, more Tories could get in.

[bindeweede]

Some encouraging news for those worried about the apparent continued rise of the extreme right.

Austria's Norbert Hofer has conceded defeat after his hopes of becoming the European Union's first far-right president were dashed.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 55311.html

[Tony.Williams]

Yes, that is a relief.

Italy looks to be sliding back into the mire, though, putting yet more strain on the eurozone.

[Abdul Alhazred]

What's the latest from Italy?

[bindeweede]

Italian PM is to resign. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ction-live

No idea about implications.

[Tony.Williams]

From the BBC News website:

Italy wakes up on Monday to the threat of a banking crisis, political turmoil, and a group of anti-establishment populists banging on the doors of government. Eurozone beware and EU be warned. Italy is the euro currency's third largest economy and it's in for a bumpy ride. And there are more unpredictable votes to come in 2017: in France, Germany, the Netherlands and perhaps here in Italy too.

Italy may be the Eurozone's third largest economy but it's also one of the weakest. Renzi was trying to sort out its chaotic political structure as a preliminary to making radical changes but that's gone down with him.

[Tony.Williams]

A least we now have an appropriate mantra for the modern political age - courtesy of the film "Sully", just before the pilot ditches his plane in the Hudson. The cabin crew all chant in unison, over and over again (all together now):

"Brace, brace, brace! Head down! Stay down!
Brace, brace, brace! Head down! Stay down!
Brace, brace, brace! Head down! Stay down!"

[Tony.Williams]

So, a second by-election this month:

In the first, in a very pro-EU Richmond Park, Labour came third with a lost deposit.

In the second, in a very pro-Brexit Sleaford, Labour came fourth, with UKIP second.

So far, in elections dominated by the Brexit issue, the Labour vote seems to be badly squeezed either way. Of course, by the time the next general election comes along, Brexit should be done and dusted.....shouldn't it? :?

[chaggle]

Sleaford and North Hykeham byelection results
Caroline Johnson (Cons) 17,570 (53.51%, -2.68%)
Victoria Ayling (Ukip) 4,426 (13.48%, -2.21%)
Ross Pepper (Lib Dem) 3,606 (10.98%, +5.33%)
Jim Clarke (Lab) 3,363 (10.24%, -7.02%)

Can we read anything into the fact that of the serious parties the only one to increase their share was the Lib Dems? Cons, UKIP and Lab share all decreased.

[Matt]

Can we read anything into the fact that of the serious parties the only one to increase their share was the Lib Dems? Cons, UKIP and Lab share all decreased.

I don't know about the figures but that combination of highlighted words is something I'd never have expected to see this time last year.