Brexit consequences

[bindeweede]

Apparently, Section 55 of the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018 states that:

"It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

Jo Maugham QC has stated, "I believe that the proposed Withdrawal Agreement - which contains special customs arrangements for Northern Ireland - is contrary to section 55. Unless and until Section 55 is repealed by the UK Parliament it is simply not open, as a matter of law, for the United Kingdom to enter into such an agreement.

I intend to launch an immediate petition for an injunction in the Court of Session preventing the Government from placing the Withdrawal Agreement before Parliament for approval. We expect that petition to be lodged tomorrow and heard on Friday. "

The decision of Outer House, (The Court of Session is Scotland's supreme civil court), is expected at 5pm.

[bindeweede]

Scottish Court of Session has rejected campaigners' bid to declare Boris Johnson's Brexit deal unlawful.

[bindeweede]

If "Yes, Prime Minister" in the 80s had produced a story-line similar to what's been happening in Parliament recently, it would have been dismissed as hysterical fantasy.

[bindeweede]

Slight change in Government propaganda tone?

The government has changed the wording of its Get Ready for Brexit campaign appearing to suggest a no-deal exit on the 31 October is now less likely.

Its website now says: "We could still leave with no deal on 31 October."

The wording has been altered from earlier this month, when it said: "The UK is due to leave on 31 October."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50117797

[Tony.Williams]

Soon to change to: "We are desperately hanging on to the increasingly faint hope that we might just leave on 31 October. However, we would appreciate any offers of a nice, comfortable ditch."

[chaggle]

Whichever way you look at it the Brexit process is bogged down and going nowhere.

Leavers will say that it the elites stymying the 'will of the people', remainers will say it's parliament quite properly holding the government to account. The reason doesn't particularly matter.

I suspect that if what the goverment says is true - that what the people want is to 'get Brexit done' - then the only way to do that is now a second referendum.

Leavers seem confident enough that they will win so they shouldn't have a problem with it.

[Tony.Williams]

Leavers seem confident enough that they will win so they shouldn't have a problem with it.

I agree that a second referendum would be the best way of resolving this problem, the main initial drawback being that it would take months to organise. I think that the outcome would be wildly unpredictable: anything from an overwhelming rush of support for the government deal as a reaction to all of the delays, to an overwhelming rush of support for "remain" in order to make the whole farce stop. Worst of all would be perhaps the most likely outcome: more or less 50/50. Then what?

[chaggle]

I think we would have to undertake to action the result whatever.

It's certainly not a perfect or even tidy solution - but what else can we do?

[Tony.Williams]

I think we would have to undertake to action the result whatever.

Yes - but the public should be made very aware that "actioning the result" would vary enormously depending on the result. If the answer is "leave", that will mean years more delay while the terms of leaving the EU are re-run, plus trading agreements are negotiated with the EU, and with many other countries to replace the current ones we enjoy via the EU. If the answer is "remain" then it all stops - instantly - and we return to normal. The Brexiters will whinge, of course, but they really enjoy doing that so why spoil their fun?

[bindeweede]

So, if I understand the latest votes correctly, whether the UK leaves the EU on October 31st or not, is down to whether an extension is permitted by the EU or not, and how long that extension might be. So where does that leave the "taking back control" BS?

[bindeweede]

Update from Ian Dunt.

It came after a rare government victory. The government won the second reading of its Brexit bill by 329 votes to 299. That's a reasonably chunky majority, but not an insurmountable one for his opponents. It means 15 MPs would need to switch sides. Some of the MPs who backed it from the Labour benches did so not because they supported it, but because they wanted to get into the amendments process, where they could see if it could be changed enough to support it.

The numbers are very tight. At the moment, the odds are with the government, but there is a long way to go - plenty of amendments and battles on details, in which things can change. This is still still anyone's game to lose.

The crucial vote came immediately afterwards, when MPs voted on the programme motion. This was its timetable for the bill. They were trying to budgeon it through the Commons by Thursday, so MPs had no time to scrutinise it, in order to satisfy the October 31st deadline.

It failed, by 322 votes to 308. And that changes everything.

The consequences are huge. First of all, Britain is now almost certainly not going to leave the EU on October 31st. The deal cannot go through in time. That means that the EU leaders who had been biding their time to respond to the extension request will now do so, probably next week.

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/1 ... ent-defeat

[bindeweede]

Donald Tusk
@eucopresident
·
22m
Following PM @BorisJohnson
’s decision to pause the process of ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement, and in order to avoid a no-deal #Brexit, I will recommend the EU27 accept the UK request for an extension. For this I will propose a written procedure.

(Twitter).

"The EU moves to delay Brexit until next year after Boris Johnson abandons bid to force his deal through Parliament."

https://www.businessinsider.com/eu-dela ... ?r=US&IR=T

[bindeweede]

Brexit and theory of counterfactual thinking.

Despite its name, this isn’t just thinking the opposite of what we factually know—though that has probably played some part in the whole disaster. It is instead the analysis of how we think and feel about scenarios which could have happened.

Broadly speaking, counterfactual thinking is why we get more annoyed if we missed our train by 2 minutes than if we miss it by twenty. We’re much more likely to tell ourselves “if only I’d got to the station a little earlier” than “well, at least I didn’t miss the train by an hour.”

An interesting short read.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/poli ... ing-debate

[bindeweede]

"Australia and others ask for Brexit trade compensation."

(I'd say it's all going rather well. Wouldn't you, Wilson?")

Countries including Australia have asked for trade compensation from the UK and the EU over Brexit disruption.

Fifteen countries, including the US, India and New Zealand, have been setting out Brexit concerns at a World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting in Geneva.

Australian officials said their beef and lamb exporters had already been hit after several Brexit delays.

Brazil said Brexit plans for Northern Ireland could breach WTO rules.

Three and a half years after that abysmally planned, prepared and corrupted referendum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business ... ssion=true

[bindeweede]

The latest post from Chris Grey.

And he adds at the end....

So now that it is once again the case that there is no prospect of Brexit being reversed, the rationale for the blog remains as it was from the beginning. So too does my original sentiment in that first post that Brexit is a national catastrophe. But that does not take away the need to provide an ongoing analysis of it which, whilst clearly and avowedly partisan, aspires to be based on evidence, logic, and fair and rational argument.

If nothing else, there may be some value in creating a more or less continuous record of what Brexit has done to our country, not least as a reminder that this is so very different to what, in 2016, Brexiters promised. So it can make its own very small contribution to holding them to account for what they have done.

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co ... rmath.html