Brexit consequences

[chaggle]

According to Matt Hancock, Christmas won't be normal this year.

A glimmer of light in the gloom.

[polomint38]

According to Matt Hancock, Christmas won't be normal this year.

A glimmer of light in the gloom.

Have you met my family?
Christmas has never been described as normal in my household.

Although spent the last 2 Christmases (christmasi) in rehab, probably this year again.

[bindeweede]

Chris Grey is having a short break from his blog. This is his latest entry.

"Time is running out but negotiations will never end."

In several recent posts I’ve argued that it is pointless trying to predict whether or not there will be a deal, and I must confess to becoming increasingly irritated by the numerous pundits trying to do so. But, in addition to that, the wider implication of what I’ve written today is that if there is no deal – and, in a less dramatic way, even if there is a deal – that won’t be a ‘settled’ relationship, and so won’t be the end of ‘Brexit negotiations’. It will be the beginning of more negotiations.

So, depressing as it is to say it, the current ‘deal or no deal’ episode isn’t even the prelude to a resolution. For, given the irreducible fact that the EU is a major economic bloc sitting geographically right next door, there will be never-ending negotiations of one sort or another. Indeed it must be conceded that one, at least, of the Brexiters’ slogans has been proved true. Unsurprisingly so, since it was the truism that ‘we’re leaving the EU but we’re not leaving Europe’.

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co ... -haul.html

[Tony.Williams]

BoJo's latest ploy emerged just after Chris Grey's latest blog message was posted... from BBC News:

Talks between the UK and EU over a post-Brexit trade agreement are "over", Downing Street has said.
No 10 argued there was "no point" in discussions continuing next week unless the EU was prepared to discuss the detailed legal text of a partnership.
UK chief negotiator Lord Frost said he had told EU counterpart Michel Barnier there was now no "basis" for planned talks on Monday.
Number 10 said the two sides had agreed to talk again next week - by phone.

So here we go, sliding steadily into a hard Brexit which no-one except the Tory headbangers wants.

[bindeweede]

I'm quite expecting the situation to be different by Monday.

[bindeweede]

From Guardian article timed Sun 18 Oct 2020 17.22 BST.

The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, will hold a video conference call with his British counterpart, David Frost, on Monday afternoon to discuss the structure of future talks.

While it is probable that Downing Street will need to appear tough by pushing back against an immediate resumption of the trade and security negotiations, sources on both sides expect the current suspension to be short.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... h-rhetoric

[bindeweede]

Chris Grey latest - this time at "Prospect".

There has been a tone of increasing frustration and alarm in government statements about business preparedness for the end of the Brexit transition period. Cabinet minister Theodore Agnew recently accused firms of “burying their heads in the sand,” while the “Check, Change, Go” communication campaign has now adopted the panicky-sounding headline “time is running out.”

It’s certainly true that numerous surveys have shown a widespread lack of preparation. Overall, just 12.5 per cent of businesses feel ready for what is to come; in the food and drink sector, only 3.5 per cent say they are fully prepared. The problem is severe for larger businesses, but even worse for small- and medium-sized enterprises which have far fewer resources to devote to planning.

One big reason for the lack of preparedness is, of course, the Covid-19 pandemic, which has demanded so much business attention as to leave little capacity for Brexit planning, although even before the virus struck it was clear that a one-year transition period would give inadequate time for firms to adjust.

"It is not now a matter of “time running out” for businesses to prepare for 1st January. Time has run out."

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/econ ... transition

[Tony.Williams]

From CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/16/busi ... index.html

The British economy has been pummeled by the pandemic. Now, with talks on a new trade deal with the European Union at risk of collapse, Johnson has to decide: Does he try to find common ground with Europe, or walk away?

Britain already faces a tough 2021 as the country battles the twin shocks of coronavirus and Brexit. But failing to secure an agreement with the United Kingdom's biggest export market would amplify the pain. Walking away empty-handed — which Johnson threatened to do on Friday — would create disruptions to trade when the transition period ends later this year, shaving more than $25 billion off the UK economy in 2021 compared to a scenario where a limited free trade deal is agreed, according to a CNN Business analysis based on forecasts from Citi and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. That would put the country even further behind on its efforts to recover from the historic shock triggered by the pandemic.

"The combination of Covid-19 and the exit from the EU single market makes the UK outlook exceptionally uncertain," Laurence Boone, chief economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said in a report this week. "Actions taken to address the pandemic and decisions made on future trading relationships will have a lasting impact on the United Kingdom's economic trajectory for years to come."

The confusion over where Brexit goes next couldn't come at a worse time for the United Kingdom. Citi and IFS estimate that the UK economy will contract by 9.4% this year. That would be the largest drop since 1921, according to data from the Bank of England. The additional restrictions coming into effect could make matters worse. A disorderly break with the European Union on top of the coronavirus recession would only prolong the recovery.

With a limited trade agreement, the UK economy is due to bounce back with growth of 4.6% in 2021 before losing some momentum between 2022 and 2024, according to IFS and Citi projections. Failing to reach a trade deal with Europe would shave as much as one percentage point off that level of growth. The difference comes out to nearly £20 billion, or over $25 billion. According to economists at Citi and IFS, even the best-case scenario of a limited trade agreement would leave the UK economy 2.1% smaller in 2021 than it would have been if the transition period was extended indefinitely.

And, as noted elsewhere, the prospects for an early USA/UK trade deal appear to be receding.